Russell 2000: How Much of a Correction Should Investors Expect?

Published 09/26/2025, 02:54 AM

Last week I wrote a Daily speculating on whether Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM) had put in a technical pattern called triple tops, or if IWM will clear the highs of 2021, 2024, and now 2025 and keep screaming higher. XRT-IWM-Daily Chart

A triple top pattern is a bearish technical analysis chart pattern that signals a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend.  

It forms when an asset’s price reaches a similar resistance level three times, failing to break higher on each attempt. 

To confirm, a triple top means the price breaks below the support level drawn among the 3 peaks. 

With IWM, the support level is lower at around 210-215. At this point, we just do not know. 

But we do know that IWM has rejected the highs for now. 

And, if we look at the lows of the last 3 weeks, in sequence, the prices are 

235.42, 236.75, and this week 237.55. So far. 

While I will not predict that this is anything more than a correction, I will get more concerned if we close this week under 237.55, as that breaks the pattern of consistent higher lows. 

Meanwhile, IWM is still outperforming the benchmark 

The momentum made a high at the peak price in November 2024. If you look at the red dots, IWM did not match the 11/24 high in momentum, even though the price recently made was higher than the price last November. XRT-IWM-Weekly Chart

Something to watch.  

Granny Retail XRT reached its peak last week. 

However, we must also note that the real all-time highs were made in 2021 at 104, so overall, this sector is underperforming compared to COVID times. 

With that said, this week we are seeing a classic potential reversal top. 

Should XRT close this week below the low of last week or under 86.46, we could assume a bigger correction is coming. 

How big? 

I would guess a trip down to the 80 area is possible. 

XRT is now performing on par with the benchmark. 

Momentum is flashing a mean reversion to the sell side.  

Beyond that, we do not see a divergence between price and momentum. 

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